基于实践的高速公路管养风险辨识、度量及管控探讨

摘要:

在高速公路风险管理实践中,针对风险辨识、风险度量、事故预控等难点进行了积极探索和有效应用,其中,为利于风险辨识将风险按专业分为交通运行、设施安全、养护作业三类,按存在状态分为持续性、伴生性、随机性、失养性四类,指出隐患与风险的关系,即隐患是风险快速、异常发展的状态以及对风险管控不力的情形,提出发现新风险的“假定要素或环节异常法”；以模糊集隶属函数为理论依据,建立了基于管理者实际感知的风险度量,成为风险决策的落地执行的可行方法；指出风险管控就是对条件的预控,为表达事故与条件密不可分的本质,通过条件概率将二者结合起来,列出了全概率、贝叶斯以及应急情况的公式表述,得到了事故、应急管理的总体方法。

Abstract:

In the practice of highway risk management, the positive exploration of risk identification, risk measurement and risk control have been implemented and effectively applied, among which risk is classified into traffic operation, facility security and maintenance work according to profession, and classified into persistence, association, randomness and mal-maintenance according to demonstration, the connection between trouble and risk is illustrated, the method of finding out new risk which is supposition of abnormality of factor or link, and the risk measurement based on real perception with fuzzy maths as theoretical basis is established, and conditional probability formula expression is provided.