基于大数据的出行方式分配预测研究

摘要:

随着城镇化及城市交通机动化的进程加快，在城镇化和机动化的共同作用下，交通拥挤问题已经成为制约城市发展和影响居民生活质量的主要问题之一。居民出行行为研究在交通管理和控制中有着非常重要的作用。结合多元大数据，构建出行方式选择的概率模型，有助于不同小区的出行方式分担率的预测，对缓解城市交通压力、提升运营管理能力有直接作用。本文基于小区出行分配、公共交通和非公共交通以及公交和轨道出行三个层级，分别得出出行分配预测模型，并形成计算机程序。利于实际应用，对识别城市出行特征、缓解城市交通压力提供有效措施。

Abstract:

Urbanization and urban transport motorization lead to traffic jams, which negatively affect urban development and living quality. Travel pattern of inhabitants as the primary issue in transport management and control field. Combination of multi-big data to establish the travel pattern choice probability model that contributes to predicting travel patterns among different communities. That directly affects to relieve urban pressure and improves operating ability. This study establishes a distribution predicting model under the community travel distribution, private transport, and public transport, and forms a computer application program. This study outcome benefits from recognizing urban travel characteristics, relieving urban traffic pressure and applying it in natural environments.