Abstract:The market price of prefabricated components is a key component of the total cost of prefabricated buildings. The construction administrative department needs to guide and standardize the prefabricated component market by publishing the market information prices in time. In order to overcome the time lag in the update of information price and realize the refined timeliness management, a timely and dynamic method for estimating the market information price of prefabricated components is proposed. The prediction of the main fluctuation items of labor cost, material cost and machinery cost within the information price period is realized by establishing the SCGM (1,1)c prediction model optimized by Markov, and then these costs are substituted into the information price measurement model to realize the dynamic prediction of the market information price. Taking the market information price of prefabricated external wall panels in Wuhan as an example, the result of the empirical analysis show that the SCGM (1,1)c prediction model based on Markov can meet the demand of predicting the market information price of prefabricated components in advance very well. The MAPE value is 0.89%. Compared with the other three commonly used price prediction methods, it has stronger adaptability and stability.
