基于云模型快速公交规划设计阶段风险评价

Risk Assessment of Bus Rapid Transit Planning and Design Phase Based on Cloud Model

摘要:

快速公交作为一种低成本、高运量、建设周期短的公共交通系统，具有项目规模大、涉及专业多、投资额度高和项目风险高等特点，资金筹措、政策支撑、环境影响和管理素质等方面需要综合考虑，从而降低项目管理风险。通过收集基本信息资料、案例分析法和德尔菲法对快速公交规划设计阶段风险因素进行识别并建立风险指标体系；分别采用层次分析法、CRITIC法确定主客观权重，使用博弈理论将主客观权重进行组合，最后通过云模型对快速公交规划设计阶段的风险进行评价。结合延吉快速公交实例分析，该模型能够较为合理、科学地判断快速公交项目在规划设计阶段所存在的风险，可为其他快速公交项目提供参考。

Abstract:

As a low-cost, high-volume and short construction cycle of public transit system, the bus rapid transit has the characteristics of large project scale, involving multiple specialties, high investment quota and high project risk. The comprehensive consideration is needed in terms of funding, policy support, environmental impact and management quality to reduce the project management risks. The risk factors in the planning and design phase of rapid transit are identified by collecting the basic information, case analysis method and Delphi method, and a risk indicator system is established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CRITIC method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights, and the game theory is used to combine the subjective and objective weights. Finally, a cloud model is used to evaluate the risks in the planning and design phase of rapid transit. Based on the analysis of the example of rapid transit in Yanji, this model can more reasonably and scientifically determine the risks existing in the planning and design phase of the rapid transit project, and can be used as a reference for the other rapid transit projects.