泵闸水利工程数字孪生安全模型研究与应用

Research and applications of digital twin safety model establition for pump gate hydraulic engineering structure

摘要:

为提升国家水安全保障能力，致力于智慧水利建设与数字孪生流域建设，围绕“预报、预演、预警、预案”的“四预”系统，对复杂周边环境大型河口泵闸工程堤坝、基坑和外围堰工程进行科学计算与安全分析。依托智能化模拟、数据库建设以及数字化、智能化、网络化，构建具有“四预”功能的智慧水利系统，实现对风险的早期发现与管理。研究成果包括86组堤坝与基坑工程及43组外围堰工程的子数据库，构成智慧水利的核心，赋能精准地预报、快速地预警、前瞻地预演和细化地预案。“四预”体系以天、空、地一体化多元水利感知网为基础，实时与安全模型的科学计算相结合，制定灾害态势的时空阈值，为预警提供先机，为启动预演提供指引，为预案制定提供数据支撑，实现预报的先时筹备、预警的实时战备、预演的全时防备三位一体化预案体系，为水安全管理提供了强有力的技术支持。

Abstract:

This study proposes an intelligent water conservancy system that incorporates a 'four-pre' approach: forecasting, previewing, early warning, and preplanning. The system aims to enhance national water security by integrating advanced risk management techniques, such as intelligent simulations and database foundations. The 'four-pre' functionality of the system enables proactive risk identification, warning dissemination, plan development, and measure implementation. The strategy employed here is proactive and based on 129 safety models, which are divided into sub-databases for embankments, foundation pits, and external cofferdams, serving as the intelligence core. To ensure effective disaster management, forecasting merges data from multi-layered water sensing networks for real-time analysis and alerts. Spatial and temporal disaster thresholds are used to establish early warnings, which are crucial in providing the first line of defense against impending threats. A multi-scenario simulation system can support disaster preparedness by utilizing linked forecasts and continuous rehearsals to inform pre-planning. This integration fosters a comprehensive disaster prevention capability, ensuring readiness through a threefold system of interconnected pre-planning protocols.