浦东机场货运道路通行能力需求分析及智慧扩容策略研究

Analysis on Demand for Traffic Capacity of Cargo Roads at Pudong Airport and Research on Intelligent Expansion Strategies

摘要:

随着全球化和经济一体化的推进，航空货运作为全球供应链中的关键环节，其战略地位日益凸显。空港货运道路的通行能力是影响航空货邮吞吐量的关键因素。以上海浦东国际机场（简称“浦东机场”）货运道路为研究对象，通过调研分析机场货邮吞吐量的发展现状、周边货运道路集疏运设施和集疏运通道流量分布现状，采用GM（1，1）灰色预测模型，对机场货邮吞吐量进行预测，进而对货运道路交通量进行预测。结果显示，浦东机场周边货运道路存在交通运行不畅、交通拥堵严重等问题。到2030年，浦东机场预测货邮吞吐量比规划货邮吞吐量少121万t，且规划货运量时的货运交通量比预测货运量时的货运交通量多465 pcu。按照机场总体规划，机场当前货运设施和货运道路通行能力均存在较为明显的缺口。基于此，提出近、中、远期智慧扩容策略，以提升浦东机场货运道路的通行能力，对于提升浦东机场货运道路的通行能力、实现智慧扩容、保障全球产业链供应链的稳定具有重要的实践意义。

Abstract:

As globalization and economic integration continue to advance, the air cargo has become an increasingly significant component of the global supply chain. The traffic capacity of airport cargo roads is a key factor that affects the air cargo throughput. Taking the cargo roads of Shanghai Pudong International Airport as the research object, the development status of the airport cargo throughput, and the current situation of the flow distribution of the surrounding cargo road collection and distribution facilities and the collection and distribution channels are investigated and studied. The GM (1,1) gray prediction model is employed to predict the cargo and mail throughput of the airport, and then predict the traffic volume of cargo road. The results indicate that the cargo roads surrounding Pudong Airport face problems such as inefficient traffic operations and severe traffic congestion. By the year 2030, it is projected that the cargo and mail throughput of the airport will be 1.21 million tons less than the planned cargo and mail throughput, and the cargo traffic volume when planning the cargo volume is 465 pcu more than that when predicting the cargo volume. According to the overall planning of the airport, there are significant gaps in both the current cargo facilities and the traffic capacity of the cargo roads. Therefore, the intelligent expansion strategies are proposed for the short term, medium term and long term to enhance the traffic capacity of cargo roads of Pudong Airport, which has the important practical significance for improving the traffic capacity of cargo roads of Pudong Airport, achieving the intelligent expansion, and ensuring the stability of global industrial and supply chains.