综合管廊风险评估模型研究

Study on Risk Assessment Model for Utility Tunnels

摘要:

综合管廊承载着保护城市地下管线的重要功能，其安全性和稳定性直接影响城市运行。为科学评估管廊风险，提出了一种基于多因素加权评估法的综合管廊风险评估模型。该模型综合考虑管廊自身参数、外部影响因素和现状监测数据，通过量化评分和权重分配，计算总风险值并划分风险等级，为管廊设计、施工和运维提供决策支持。模型采用线性加权法，通过专家法或层次分析法确定权重，确保模型科学性和适用性。模型可广泛应用于管廊规划、施工和运维阶段的风险评估，为城市地下空间安全管理提供科学依据。未来可结合机器学习和大数据技术，进一步优化模型精度和动态适应性。

Abstract:

The utility tunnel has the important function to protect the urban underground pipelines, and its safety and stability directly affect the operation of cities. To scientifically assess the risks of utility tunnels, a risk assessment model for utility tunnels based on a multi-factor weighted evaluation method is proposed. The model comprehensively takes into account the parameters of the utility tunnel itself, the external influencing factors and the current monitoring data. The total risk value is calculated and the risk levels are classified through quantitative scoring and weight allocation, providing the decision-making support for the design, construction, operation and maintenance of utility tunnels. The model employs a linear weighting method, and the weights are determined by expert methods or the Analytic Hierarchy Process to ensure the scientific nature and applicability of the model. The model can be widely applied to risk assessments during the planning, construction, operation and maintenance stages of utility tunnels, providing a scientific basis for the safety management of urban underground space. In the future, the model can be further optimized in terms of precision and dynamic adaptability by integrating machine learning and big data technologies.