基于案例推理的公路自然灾害应急保通方案制定研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京市 100082
2.长安大学,陕西 西安 710064

作者简介:

王安勐(1983—), 男, 硕士, 高级工程师, 从事道路市政工程设计工作。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

U417;TU997

基金项目:

北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司研发项目“公路基础设施应急抢修关键技术与设计文件编制办法研究”(2024-KYDL-010)


Research on Preparation of Emergency Traffic Protection Schemes for Highway Natural Disasters Based on Case-based Reasoning
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Beijing Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100082, China
2.Changan University, Xi'an 710064, China

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    摘要:

    为了探究公路自然灾害应急保通决策方法,提出了一种基于案例推理(CBR)与组合赋权法的推理模型。通过整合熵权法与专家打分法,构建了灾害特征指标的综合权重分配机制,并结合加权欧氏距离算法优化案例相似度匹配精度。以典型滑坡案例为历史库,以对比滑坡案例为查询目标,验证模型的有效性。结果显示,对比滑坡案例与案例库中案例2的相似度最高(总相似度为0.999 0),推荐采用“抗滑桩+排水系统+坡脚反压”的抢修方案,与实际工程逻辑高度吻合。与单一赋权方法相比,组合赋权法兼顾数据客观性与专家经验。研究同时指出,模型性能受限于案例库的完备性与参数敏感性,未来需通过数据标准化建设、抗灾能力系数动态优化及多模型交叉验证进一步强化鲁棒性。为滑坡灾害的快速响应与科学决策提供了可推广的理论框架与技术路径。

    Abstract:

    To explore the emergency traffic protection decision-making methods for the natural disasters on highways, a reasoning model based on case-based reasoning (CBR) and combined weighting method is proposed. By integrating the entropy weight method and expert scoring method, a comprehensive weight allocation mechanism for disaster characteristic indicators is constructed, and the weighted Euclidean distance algorithm is combined to optimize the accuracy of case similarity matching. Using the typical landslide cases as a historical database and comparing the landslide cases as the query objective, the effectiveness of the model is verified. The results show that the similarity between the landslide case and Case 2 in the case library is the highest (with a total similarity of 0.999 0). It is recommended to adopt the repair scheme of "anti-slide pile+drainage system+slope foot back pressure", which is highly consistent with the actual engineering logic. Compared with a single weighting method, the combined weighting method takes into account both data objectivity and expert experience. The study also points out that the performance of the model is limited by the completeness and parameter sensitivity of the case library. In the future, it is necessary to further strengthen the robustness through data standardization construction, dynamic optimization of disaster resistance coefficient, and cross validation of multiple models, which provides a propagable theoretical framework and technical path for the rapid response and scientific decision-making of landslide disasters.

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引用本文

王安勐, 赵梓皓, 李巍, 王言然, 孙居锴.基于案例推理的公路自然灾害应急保通方案制定研究[J].城市道桥与防洪,2025,(11):34-40.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-30
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-22
  • 录用日期:2025-05-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-20
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