黄浦江上游流域工程防洪风险分析及对策研究

Analysis on Flood Control Risk and Study on Countermeasures of Projects in Upper Reaches of Huangpu River Basin

摘要:

为应对气候变化和城市化对黄浦江上游防洪体系的双重压力，通过水文情势演变分析、工程现状问题调查和采用层次分析法构建的四维风险评价模型，发现支流历史最高水位最大抬升60 cm，原50 a一遇设计水位现状实际不足10 a一遇标准；拦路港—泖河—斜塘、红旗塘—大蒸塘—园泄泾处于中低至中风险等级，主因是堤防稳定性不足和堤顶欠高。为此提出了以韧性工程改造、数字孪生监测和防洪管理能力提升为核心的应对策略，为上海及长三角一体化示范区防洪体系建设提供科学依据。

Abstract:

To address the dual pressures of climate change and urbanization on the flood control system in the upper reaches of Huangpu River, through the analysis of the evolution of hydrological conditions, the investigation of current engineering problems, and the construction of a four-dimensional risk assessment model using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), it is found that the historical highest water level of the tributary rises by up to 60 cm. The current designed water level of the original once in 50 years is actually less than the once in 10-year standard. The sections of Lanlugang - Maohe - Xietang and the Hongqitang - Dazhentang - Yuanxiejing are at a medium to low risk level. The main reasons are the insufficient stability of the embankment and the low height of the embankment top. Therefore, the countermeasures centered on the resilient engineering reconstruction, the digital twin monitoring and the improvement of flood control management capabilities have been proposed, which provide the scientific basis for the construction of the flood control system in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta Integration Demonstration Zone.