层次分析法在崩岸风险评估体系中的应用

Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Bank Collapse Risk Assessment Systems

摘要:

河道崩岸严重影响防洪安全和河势稳定，为避免崩岸险情的发生，应科学开展河道崩岸的监测及预警分析工作。以浦东国际机场外侧14.2 km崩岸预警岸段为例，基于工程实际，综合考虑自然因素与人为因素的影响，采用层次分析法构建岸线风险评估体系。通过构建判断矩阵、敏感性分析确定评估体系中各指标的权重分配。将评估岸段合理划分，通过岸线风险评估模型定量评估各岸段风险值，判断预警岸段中相对风险更高的岸段，为科学实施保滩工程提供重要技术支撑。同时对比保滩工程实施前后，各岸段相对风险变化情况，对存在崩岸风险的岸段开展监测预警分析及保滩工程提出建议。

Abstract:

Bank collapse significantly threatens the flood control safety and river regime stability. To prevent such risks, it is crucial to scientifically conduct the monitoring and early-warning analysis of bank collapse. Taking the 14.2-km bank collapse early-warning section along the outside of Pudong International Airport as an example, and based on the engineering practices, the impacts of natural and human factors are comprehensively considered to establish a shoreline risk assessment system using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). By constructing the judgment matrices and conducting the sensitivity analyses, the weight distribution of each indicator in the assessment system is determined. The evaluated riverbank section is divided reasonably. The risk values of each riverbank section are quantitatively evaluated through the shoreline risk assessment model to determine the riverbank sections with relatively higher risks among the warned riverbanks, providing the important technical support for the scientific implementation of the beach protection project. At the same time, by comparing the changes in relative risks of each bank section before and after the implementation of the beach protection project, the monitoring, early warning and analysis should be carried out for the bank sections with the risk of bank collapse, and the suggestions for the beach protection project should be put forward.