基于回归分析的顶管沉降预测分析及管理措施

Predictive Analysis and Management Measures for Pipe Jacking Settlement Based on Regression Analysis

摘要:

随着城市化进程的加速和地下空间开发需求的增加，顶管施工技术因对地面交通和周围环境的较小干扰，已成为城市管线建设与改造的重要手段。然而，在顶管施工过程中不可避免引发土体扰动会导致地表沉降，将严重威胁周边建筑物及基础设施的安全。为了有效控制地表沉降，结合Peck经验公式，提出了基于回归分析的修正模型，以提高在复杂地质条件下的预测精度。通过对多个地区的施工数据进行验证，改进后的Peck公式能够准确预测地表沉降量，尤其在上海地区及类似地质条件下的应用效果显著。结果表明，当修正系数α取值为0.8～1.1、β取值为0.7～0.9时能够更精准地反映土体变形的规律，为顶管施工中沉降控制提供了科学依据。通过引入智能化监测与预警系统，未来在顶管施工中的沉降管理将更加精细化与智能化。

Abstract:

With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing demand for underground space development, the pipe jacking technology has become an important means for urban pipeline construction and renovation due to the relatively small disturbance to ground traffic and the surrounding environment. However, soil disturbance during pipe jacking construction will lead to the ground surface settlement, which poses a serious threat to the safety of surrounding buildings and infrastructure. To effectively control the ground surface settlement, a modified model based on regression analysis is proposed in combination with Peck empirical formula to improve the prediction accuracy under complex geological conditions. By verifying the construction data from multiple regions, the improved Peck formula can accurately predict the ground surface settlement, especially in the Shanghai area and similar geological conditions, the application effect is remarkable. The result shows that when the correction factor α is between 0.8 and 1.1 and β is between 0.7 and 0.9, the laws of soil deformation can be accurately reflected, providing a scientific basis for the control of settlement in pipe jacking construction. The introduction of intelligent monitoring and early warning systems will lead to more refined and intelligent settlement management in future pipe jacking construction.