基于云模型的山区桥梁水毁风险评估

Risk Assessment of Water Damage to Mountain Bridges Based on Cloud Model

摘要:

针对山区桥梁水毁风险因素耦合复杂、现有评估方法针对性不足等问题，提出了一种基于云模型与层次分析法相结合的山区桥梁水毁风险综合评估框架。在识别山区桥梁水毁特有的风险因素的基础上，构建三级指标结构，利用云模型的数字特征（期望、熵、超熵）处理评估过程中的随机性与模糊性，实现了从定性评价到定量风险等级的映射。以某山区桥梁为例进行分析，评估结果显示其综合水毁风险等级为中等，其中水深/墩宽比与冲刷深度是关键风险因子。该方法可精准定位风险关键点，为山区桥梁的防洪设计、安全管养提供科学依据，并为类似复杂环境下的基础设施风险评估提供参考。

Abstract:

In view of the problems such as the complex coupling of risk factors for water damage to bridges in mountainous areas and the insufficient pertinence of existing assessment methods, a comprehensive assessment framework for water damage risk of mountain bridges based on the combination of cloud model and analytic hierarchy process is proposed. Based on the identification of the unique risk factors of water damage to bridges in mountainous areas, a three-level indicator structure is constructed. The digital characteristics (expectation, entropy, and hyper-entropy) of the cloud model are utilized to handle the randomness and fuzziness in the assessment process, achieving the mapping from qualitative evaluation to quantitative risk levels. Taking a mountain bridge as an example, the analysis is conducted. The assessment results show that its comprehensive water damage risk level is medium, in which the water depth/pier width ratio and the scouring depth are the key risk factors. This method can accurately locate the key points of risks, providing a scientific basis for flood control design, safety management and maintenance of mountain bridges, and offering a reference for risk assessment of infrastructures in similar complex environments.