卧龙水库溃坝风险分析及应急处置研究

Study on Risk Analysis and Emergency Response of Wolong Reservoir Dam Failure

摘要:

为保障卧龙水库下游人民群众生命财产安全，提升水库突发事件应急处置能力，以溧水区卧龙水库为研究对象，在阐述水库工程概况的基础上，系统分析了可能导致水库重大险情及溃坝的主要因素，采用经验公式法进行溃坝洪水计算，明确了溃坝洪水特征及下游影响范围，并据此制定了针对性的人员转移与安置方案。研究结果表明，超标准洪水是卧龙水库溃坝的首要风险因素，校核洪水位下溃口宽度达107 m，最大溃口流量为3 056 m3/s，溃坝洪水将影响下游50.01 km2范围的85个村庄及2.5万人口；所制定的分区域、分时序人员转移方案可有效保障受灾群众安全撤离。研究结果为卧龙水库安全运行及应急管理提供了科学依据。

Abstract:

To ensure the safety of people's lives and property downstream of Wolong Reservoir and improve the emergency response capability for sudden incidents of the reservoir, taking the Wolong Reservoir in Lishui District as the research object, and on the basis of expounding the general situation of the reservoir project, the main factors that may lead to major dangerous situations and dam failure of the reservoir are systematically analyzed. The empirical formula method is used to calculate the dam-break flood, and clarify the characteristics of the dam-break flood and the downstream impact scope. Based on this, the targeted personnel transfer and resettlement plans are formulated. The research results show that the excessive flood is the primary risk factor for the dam failure of the Wolong Reservoir. The width of the breach at the flood level is verified to be 107 m. The maximum breach flow rate is 3056m3/s. And the dam-break flood will affect 85 villages and 25,000 people in the downstream area of 50.01km2. The formulated regional and phased personnel transfer plan can effectively ensure the safe evacuation of affected people. The research result provides a scientific basis for the safe operation and emergency management of Wolong Reservoir.