南京市江北新区极端暴雨内涝风险分析与应急避险策略研究

Analysis on Waterlogging Risk by Extreme Rainstorm and Research on Emergency Avoidance Strategies in Jiangbei New Area, Nanjing City

摘要:

随着全球气候变化与城市化进程加速，城市内涝风险日益严峻。针对南京市江北新区的研究显示，在类似“郑州7·20”级别的极端暴雨情景下，新区主城区内涝淹没范围可达193.49 km2，其中19.44%为水深超过1.0 m的极高风险区域。识别出36个高风险居民小区，约1.52万人面临威胁。据此提出以“先人员后财产、先老弱后一般”为原则的应急转移方案，并构建了包含组织指挥、避险转移和应急保障的综合应对体系，为提升城市防灾韧性提供有效支撑。

Abstract:

With the acceleration of global climate change and urbanization, the risk of urban waterlogging has become increasingly severe. Research on Jiangbei New Area of Nanjing City shows that under the extreme rainstorm scenario similar to the “Zhengzhou 7·20” event, the waterlogging inundation area in the main urban area of the new area can reach 193.49 km2, in which 19.44% is an extremely high-risk area with water depth exceeding 1.0 m. 36 high-risk residential communities are identified, and approximately 15200 people are at risk. Based on this, an emergency relocation scheme is proposed, adhering to the principle of “prioritizing people over property and prioritizing the elderly, weak and vulnerable over the general population”. And a comprehensive response system covering organizational command, evasion and relocation, and emergency support is constructed, providing effective support for improving the disaster prevention resilience of the city.