基于路面指标发展模型的使用性能预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Using Performance Based on Pavement Index Development Model

摘要:

为科学准确地预测高速公路沥青路面服役性能的长期发展，为养护决策提供指导支撑，基于江苏省大量服役期内高速公路检测数据，总结江苏省高速公路沥青路面车辙、裂缝两个关键指标的发展规律，经方法比选后，基于“S”型函数建立路面关键指标发展模型，形成路面使用性能预测分析方法。研究结果表明，江苏省半刚性基层沥青路面车辙呈现三阶段发展：快-慢-快，裂缝呈现三阶段发展：慢-快-慢。基于发展规律建立的关键指标发展模型可较好地反映路面服役性能的发展，并科学预测未来路面发展情况。研究成果为高速公路养护决策提供有价值的参考价值。

Abstract:

To scientifically and accurately predict the long-term development of service performance for expressway asphalt pavements and provide guidance for maintenance decisions， the development patterns of two key indicators such as rutting and cracking on expressway asphalt pavements in Jiangsu Province are summarized according to the extensive in-service inspection data of expressways in Jiangsu Province. After comparing various methods， based on the “S”-shaped function， a development model of key pavement indicators is established， and a prediction and analysis method for pavement service performance is formed. The research findings indicate that rutting on semi-rigid base asphalt pavements in Jiangsu Province shows a three-stage development: fast - slow - fast. Cracks show a three-stage development: slow - fast - slow. The key index development model established based on the development law can better reflect the development of pavement service performance and scientifically predict the future pavement development situation. These research outcomes provide valuable reference for expressway maintenance decision-making.